An island between the lagoon
and the sea
We are at the Venice-Lido beach, where a light bora wind is blowing and the steady rhythm of the waves is broken by that–more piercing and less pleasant–of the renovation works of the Excelsior hotel, located a few meters from the beach.
The part of the island nearest to the waterbus stops is the most densely built and inhabited. If we go further east, however, the buildings thin out and nature begins to prevail. First, we find the area of Malamocco:
one of the oldest Venetian settlements, dating back to Roman times and still inhabited by just over a thousand people. Walking through this miniature Venice, we come across various coats of arms and symbols of the ancient presence of the people of the Serenissima.
Malamocco
The part of the island nearest to the waterbus stops is the most densely built and inhabited. If we go further east, however, the buildings thin out and nature begins to prevail. First, we find the area of Malamocco: one of the oldest Venetian settlements, dating back to Roman times and still inhabited by just over a thousand people. Walking through this miniature Venice, we come across various coats of arms and symbols of the ancient presence of the people of the Serenissima.
Biodiversity among the dunes: the Alberoni protected area
If we walk further, where vegetation definitively takes over on roads and buildings, we find a natural area that includes a pine forest and a natural dune system rich in biodiversity, now a WWF protected area. This protected site is an oasis for seabirds and endemic flora of the Upper Adriatic Sea; an important break in building continuity and a unique natural spot on the island, often visited by residents looking for some peace and quiet away from the busiest beaches.
Venice Lido and climate change
Like much of the Veneto coastline, the Lido is particularly vulnerable to the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of climate change. The area is prone to flooding due to sea level rise and increasingly frequent coastal storm surges; but it also faces erosion and salt water intrusion, which are expected to worsen under future climate scenarios. In addition, the coastal area is particularly vulnerable to extreme weather phenomena and climatic events, such as temperature spikes or heavy rainfall, with an increasingly marked intermittence between periods of drought and periods with very intense rainfall occurrences – and thus greater risk of flooding.
Impacts on fisheries
In addition to the risks related to floodings, climate change will also have impacts on marine and coastal water quality due to increased temperature and changes in salinity. These may in turn have serious consequences on coastal ecosystems, fisheries and aquaculture activities, which are highly developed along the entire coast.
Artificial solutions...
Floods are currently on the rise, but methods to counter the power of the sea were already put in place in the past. Those considered more “traditional” solutions are the murazzi: these imposing Istrian stone seawalls were built as early as 1744 to defend the coastline from erosion and the often unpredictable power of the sea. Later, several dikes made of Istrian stone and concrete were added at a regular distance, to break the power of the waves. But these are not the only solutions adopted in recent years; others draw inspiration from natural adaptation strategies already present in the coastal environment.
... and solutions mimicking nature
Another response to sea level rise is the creation of dune systems to protect the inner beach areas. These are set up throughout the coastline during the winter months (from November to March storm surges are more frequent), and are left in place until the beginning of the summer season. This solution can also be found in a natural state, as is the case in the Alberoni area: a perfect example where nature has protected itself from the power of the sea.
The multi-risk approach
Given the multitude and diversity of the impacts affecting the coastal areas, it has proven essential to adopt a multi-risk approach, that is, one that takes into account the various risks in a combined manner and with as broad a view as possible, to prevent solutions to certain impacts from becoming the cause of others.
The role of artificial intelligence and machine learning
But how do we effectively predict and manage damages from different climate change impacts? Researchers at the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change have developed a model that integrates climate metrics, exposure and vulnerability factors, and impacts from past events to better understand the changes that will occur in the future.
The innovative features of the model
What makes the Machine Learning model developed at CMCC innovative is its ability to process a huge amount of heterogeneous information: atmospheric data, such as temperature or precipitation, but also oceanographic data, such as sea height level and currents, as well as spatial data, such as the presence or absence of adaptation measures at the time of the occurrence of the damage recorded in the reference period (2009-2019). Other indicators are then added to these data, with future scenarios up to 2050.
The results found
A first result that emerged from the model is the identification of a different trend in temperature, precipitation, and sea level not only on the day a damage was recorded, but especially during the three days prior to the extreme event that caused it. For instance, three days before the occurrence of a certain extreme event, an increase in temperature was detected that led to an accumulation of energy, that in turn caused the occurrence of the event itself (and subsequent recorded damage). Results like this can be very useful in helping to predict and manage future damages.
What we can expect for the future
Thanks to the possibility to integrate future scenarios up to 2050 with atmospheric and oceanographic indicators, today we are able to predict how often damages will occur in the future. Unfortunately, the expected results as we approach 2050 see an increase in damage from higher precipitation, increased temperature, and sea level rise. The impact of these damages will affect all economic sectors, from tourism to services, but also ecosystems and natural systems such as those found at the Alberoni, and cultural and historical heritage such as the Malamocco site.
“Our model learns from past data and helps us predict damages in the future.”
Maria Katherina Dal Barco
After AdriaClim: scalability and reuse of the model
The use of this model, which the researchers intend to make replicable and scalable to other areas of the Veneto Region and other coastal areas of Italy, will help to put in place appropriate adaptation measures following a multi-hazard approach that will allow the various impacts and resulting damages to be addressed without increasing the vulnerability of the coasts to other types of climate risks.